(Gemini Audio)
(de-news.net) – According to a report by the Institute for Employment Research, artificial intelligence is predicted to change Germany’s economy and labor market over the next decade and a half. The forecasts suggest that AI will operate as a driver of growth, bringing enormous value to the economy, while simultaneously shifting the structure of employment across industries and qualifications. Instead of a general tendency toward job loss, there is a tendency toward redistribution and transformation, with certain industries and occupational groups seeing growth and others seeing contraction.
According to the paper, integrating AI technologies might increase annual GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points at the macroeconomic level as compared to a scenario in which the said technologies are not used. This equates to an extra 4.5 trillion euros in value creation over a fifteen-year period. These benefits are ascribed to a number of methods, including reduced material input costs, increased productivity in a variety of operations, and the creation of whole new business models that would not be possible without AI. Crucially, the study emphasizes that these effects develop gradually rather than instantly, with medium- and long-term benefits greatly outweighing short-term swings. Thus, rather than being presented as an abrupt shock, AI is described as a structural force that gradually alters the fundamentals of economic activity.
This picture is enhanced by the labor market research, which demonstrates that while overall employment is largely unchanged in the AI scenario, job distribution is drastically altered. Structural changes result in the creation or elimination of about 1.6 million jobs. The growth of data centers, the favorable effects of decreasing import prices, and particularly the opportunities created by new business models are what drive the positive side of this balance. On the down side, increased labor productivity and efficiency improvements in intermediate inputs lower demand for some jobs, which results in job losses in some regions. The fact that AI is both a source of expansion and a catalyst for displacement highlights the complexity of its effects.
Particularly noticeable are sectoral differences. With a net rise of roughly 110,000 employment over the reference scenario, information technology and allied services are expected to gain the most. Business services, on the other hand, are predicted to decline, losing about 120,000 jobs. These numbers show how the deployment of AI reconfigures the economic landscape, favoring industries strongly linked to digital infrastructure and innovation while posing challenges to others whose operations are more easily mechanized or streamlined.
Another level of complexity is added by the occupational analysis in chapter four. Because AI systems frequently take over jobs requiring advanced but routine competence, specialist employment are most affected in the medium term. Expert positions decrease more dramatically over time in comparison to the reference scenario, indicating that even highly skilled tasks are susceptible to automation. Helpers, semi-skilled workers, and skilled workers, on the other hand, are generally less affected. The study found that AI applications have a greater tendency than traditional software systems to impact highly qualified operations, which shifts the demand towards the upper end of the skills range.
The report paints a clear picture: artificial intelligence will significantly accelerate Germany’s economic growth, but it will also change the labor market in ways that will require adjustment. While overall employment numbers stay steady, the makeup of jobs shifts, with growth focused in IT and data-driven industries, losses in business services, and certain expert professions. The necessity of long-term planning is emphasized by the report’s focus on progressive transition as opposed to sudden disruption. Policymakers, businesses, and employees must all prepare for these changes by investing in infrastructure and skills that meet the new needs brought about by AI. In this way, the report presents AI as a force that is changing the nature of labor and economic growth in Germany rather than as a threat to employment.
