(de-news.net) – If specific educational objectives were consistently pursued, Germany could in the long term secure an additional economic output amounting to several trillion euros. This projection stems from a model calculation undertaken by the ifo Institute on behalf of the Bertelsmann Foundation. “Within a few decades, improved education yields verifiable economic returns that significantly strengthen both the state and society,” explains Ludger Wöhmann, Director of the ifo Center for the Economics of Education. The study nevertheless cautions that such effects require time to materialize. Only after approximately fifty years would the cumulative value of educational progress amount to around 6.7 trillion euros, while after eighty years it could reach 20.9 trillion euros—equivalent to roughly five times the current gross domestic product. Initial investments, however, are indispensable.
To achieve these improvements, the researchers argue that three central goals must be implemented. Earlier this year, three education ministers from different political parties introduced these objectives, thereby demonstrating cross‑party consensus. First, the number of pupils failing to meet minimum standards in mathematics and German should be reduced by half, ensuring a secure baseline of competence. Second, overall attainment must be raised so that 20 percent more students meet or surpass the established standards. Third, the performance of the most capable learners should be cultivated, with the aim of increasing by thirty percent the proportion of students who reach the optimal benchmarks.
The scale of potential rewards is illustrated through regional examples. North Rhine‑Westphalia could anticipate an additional 4.9 trillion euros in GDP, Baden‑Württemberg approximately 3.0 trillion euros, and Bavaria around 2.8 trillion euros if the targets were met. These figures, far exceeding the current annual GDP of each state, underscore the immense macroeconomic significance of education policy. Dirk Zorn, Director of Education at the Bertelsmann Foundation, highlights the societal dimension: “Our country would generate billions in potential additional prosperity every year if more young people were able to read, write, and calculate with greater proficiency.”
Accordingly, the study frames education not merely as a cultural or social mission but as a decisive economic strategy. Because the benefits accumulate gradually over decades, reforms must be initiated without delay. The non‑linear trajectory of returns—requiring substantial investment before long‑term dividends become visible—demonstrates the necessity of political perseverance and sustained commitment.
