(de-news.net) – A two-week ceasefire in the Iran War eased global market tensions on Wednesday, driving a sharp rally in equities and steep declines in oil and gas prices. While political actors urged rapid pass-through to consumers, economists cautioned that price reductions — especially at fuel pumps — would likely lag amid ongoing uncertainty. Sectoral effects, particularly in aviation, were also expected to normalize gradually if geopolitical conditions stabilize.
Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, financial markets exhibited an immediate easing of risk perceptions, reflected both in declining oil prices and a broad-based upswing in global equity indices. At the opening of trading, the DAX advanced by 4.9 percent to 24,033 points. Although part of these gains was relinquished during the session, the index remained near the 24,000 threshold for most of the trading day, indicating sustained investor confidence. By the close of Xetra trading, it was calculated at 24,081 points, corresponding to a 5.1 percent increase relative to the previous session and underscoring the strength of the rebound.
Movements in energy markets were even more pronounced, highlighting their sensitivity to geopolitical developments. In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire announcement, prices for Brent crude declined sharply, dropping by nearly 16 percent to approximately 92 US dollars per barrel, thereby reaching their lowest level since mid-March. By late afternoon (around 5 p.m. German time), Brent was trading at 95.06 US dollars, still down 13.0 percent compared with the prior day’s close. A comparable downward adjustment was observed for West Texas Intermediate, reinforcing the breadth of the market reaction. Oil prices—widely interpreted as a central barometer of both inflation expectations and macroeconomic growth prospects—had previously surged amid disruptions to supply chains traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.
Natural gas markets likewise registered notable declines, albeit with less volatility than crude oil. A megawatt hour (MWh) of gas for delivery in May was priced at 46 euros, representing a 14 percent decrease from the preceding day. Should this price level prove durable, it would imply end-consumer costs—once ancillary charges and taxes are included—of roughly nine to eleven euro cents per kilowatt hour. This projection situates wholesale price movements within a broader consumer context, though it remains contingent on the persistence of current market conditions.
In the political arena, the Social Democratic Party of Germany responded to indications that shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz might reopen by calling on mineral oil companies to transmit lower crude prices to consumers without delay. According to reports, deputy parliamentary group leader Esra Limbacher argued that German motorists had already been disproportionately burdened by comparatively steep price increases relative to other European countries. He was further reported to have maintained that the double-digit overnight decline in oil prices should be rapidly reflected at fuel pumps and expressed the expectation that firms would pass on falling global prices with the same immediacy previously observed during price increases.
Prices may fall at the gas stations, but not immediately, as supply chains lag behind
By contrast, Monika Schnitzer, chair of the German Council of Economic Experts, expressed skepticism regarding the immediacy of any downward adjustment in retail fuel prices, according to press reports. She was cited as noting that while price increases tend to be transmitted quickly through the supply chain, reductions typically materialize only after a delay of several days. Although she anticipated that lower oil prices would ultimately reach consumers, she emphasized the continued volatility of the situation and the uncertainty surrounding the durability of the ceasefire. In her assessment, even under favorable conditions, restoring supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz would likely require several weeks. The decisive factor, she suggested, would be whether the two-week cessation of hostilities could be leveraged into a more durable resolution of the conflict.
From a sector-specific perspective, Andrew Lobbenberg of Barclays characterized the recent surge in airfares on Europe–Asia routes as temporary in nature, reports indicated. He was reported to have indicated that prices could reverse rapidly—potentially even declining to unusually low levels—once Gulf carriers resumed full operations, although the timing of such normalization remained uncertain even among specialists.
Ticket prices on certain routes had risen dramatically, by as much as 560 percent month over month, primarily as a result of airspace closures over Russia, Iran, and the Persian Gulf. Against this backdrop, the ceasefire was interpreted as a possible inflection point for gradual stabilization: the reopening of regional aviation hubs and sustained access to Iranian airspace would likely alleviate pressure on alternative flight corridors, particularly those routed via Afghanistan, thereby reducing upward pressure on fares.
