(de-news.net) – A new study by the Institute of the German Economy (IW) says Germany’s net migration has fallen sharply because of lower asylum migration, increased return migration from Eastern EU countries, and rising emigration among German citizens. The institute warns that the trend could deepen labor shortages and weaken the country’s long-term economic competitiveness unless Germany remains attractive to skilled workers.
According to a yet unpublished report by the employer-backed IW, Germany is undergoing a threefold shift in migration patterns that is significantly reducing the inflow of workers and skilled professionals regarded as essential to the country’s long-term economic and demographic outlook. The study concludes that net migration—the balance between immigration and emigration—declined sharply to 235,000 people in 2025, down from 663,000 in 2023. With the exception of the peak years of the COVID-19 pandemic, this represents one of the lowest levels recorded since 2010 and reflects a marked change in the migration trends that have supported Germany’s labor market over the past decade.
The IW attributes the decline to three separate developments that it says are largely unrelated but collectively have reduced overall migration gains. The first is a steep fall in asylum-related immigration. Initial asylum applications decreased from 329,000 in 2023 to 113,000 in 2025. According to the report, the reduction reflects both the federal government’s stricter migration policies and improved conditions in Syria following the end of the country’s civil war. At the same time, the analysis notes that a renewed escalation of the war in Ukraine could once again increase refugee arrivals, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding future humanitarian migration flows.
A second factor identified by the institute is the reversal of migration from the European Union’s newer member states in Central and Eastern Europe. Although nationals from those countries accounted for roughly 5% of all social security-covered employment in Germany in 2023, migration patterns have shifted noticeably. The study estimates that 45,000 more citizens of those member states left Germany than arrived in 2025, compared with a net outflow of 35,000 a year earlier. This contrasts sharply with 2023, when Germany still recorded net immigration of approximately 42,000 people from those countries. The report argues that another substantial wave of labor migration from Eastern EU member states is unlikely because demographic aging is creating labor shortages in those countries as well, while the economic and wage gap with Germany has narrowed considerably.
The third trend highlighted by the study is a sustained increase in the number of German citizens leaving the country. According to the findings, emigration among Germans rose from 74,000 people in 2023 to 97,000 in 2025. While the report does not identify a single cause, it suggests that the increase could indicate a less favorable domestic environment and therefore warrants closer attention as part of broader labor market developments.
Appeal to skilled professionals considered decisive
Taken together, the three trends point to a significant reduction in Germany’s future labor supply at a time when demographic aging is expected to intensify pressure on employers seeking qualified workers. Rather than reflecting a single policy or economic development, the IW argues that the combined effect of declining asylum migration, reduced labor migration from Eastern Europe, and rising emigration among German citizens is reshaping the country’s migration balance in ways that could have lasting implications for workforce availability.
IW researcher Dr. Wido Geis-Thöne warned that, if the emigration of highly qualified professionals were to continue or accelerate, the consequences could extend well beyond existing labor shortages. According to the study, such a development could further constrain Germany’s innovative capacity and weaken its long-term economic growth potential. Against that backdrop, Geis-Thöne argued that Germany should preserve or strengthen its attractiveness as both a place to live and a destination for skilled employment. In particular, he said policymakers should seek to limit the burden imposed by taxes and mandatory social contributions in order to maintain the country’s competitiveness in attracting and retaining qualified workers.
The findings underscore the growing challenge facing Germany as demographic change increasingly intersects with shifting migration patterns. While each of the three developments identified by the IW stems from different underlying dynamics, the institute concludes that their combined impact is reducing the labor force gains that have long helped offset the country’s aging population, making the retention and attraction of skilled workers an increasingly important economic policy objective.
