(de-news.net) – Germany and a number of EU partners are developing plans for return hubs in non-EU nations for rejected asylum seekers who cannot be sent back home. Migration’s ongoing demographic and economic significance is highlighted by the contrast between declining refugee arrivals and eastern Germany’s increasing reliance on foreign skilled workers.
Plans to establish return centers, commonly referred to as ‘return hubs,’ in countries outside the European Union are being advanced by German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt and his counterparts from Denmark, Greece, Austria and the Netherlands. Following talks in Copenhagen, Dobrindt said technical discussions with non-EU countries were already underway, with the aim of concluding an agreement with a partner state by the end of 2026. EU Commissioner Magnus Brunner also took part in the meeting, although the countries involved in the negotiations were not identified. The participating governments are expected to meet again in Munich in late September as they seek to move the initiative forward.
The proposed facilities would accommodate rejected asylum seekers who cannot be returned to their countries of origin. Their establishment would depend on agreements between EU member states and third countries prepared to host such centers. The initiative is grounded in the EU return regulation agreed upon by member-state negotiators and the European Parliament in June. Under the framework, partner countries would be expected to comply with international law and applicable human rights standards.
Germany is pursuing potential agreements with several countries, particularly in Africa, alongside Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece. Rwanda has confirmed that it has held discussions with Germany and other European governments. Italy has also reportedly expressed interest in an agreement with Kigali that could involve a transit facility in Gashora, about 60 kilometers from Rwanda’s capital. The site has housed migrants stranded in Libya since 2019. Germany, however, canceled planned government consultations with Rwanda in early 2025 after criticism of Kigali’s support for the M23 militia’s offensive in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Earlier reports identified about a dozen countries as possible partners for return hubs. They included Rwanda, Uganda, Ghana, Senegal, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Egypt and Ethiopia, as well as Uzbekistan, Armenia and Montenegro. The range of countries under consideration illustrates the effort by EU governments to identify states willing to accept migrants who cannot readily be returned to their countries of origin. The Netherlands had also previously considered sending rejected asylum seekers to Uganda, according to media reports.
Germany records modest drop in refugee population amid falling Ukrainian arrivals
The plans have drawn strong criticism from human rights organizations and church groups, which have raised concerns about detention conditions, legal safeguards and the treatment of vulnerable people. The International Rescue Committee has argued that the framework could make detention-like facilities outside EU territory more routine and could expose migrants to persecution or torture. Amnesty International has similarly warned against concluding agreements with politically unstable states. Save the Children has raised concerns about potentially serious violations of children’s rights, while Caritas has warned that migrants could face arbitrary or indefinite detention while remaining in a legal gray area.
The legal status of such arrangements has not yet been definitively resolved. In an April opinion, an advocate general at the European Court of Justice concluded that EU member states were not generally prohibited from establishing return facilities outside their own territory and that Italy’s controversial centers in Albania did not, in principle, violate EU law. The legal safeguards would nevertheless remain significant. People held in such facilities would need continued access to legal assistance and language support, while maintaining contact with their families and the relevant authorities. Opinions from an advocate general are not binding, but they are frequently considered by EU judges when reaching final decisions.
At the same time, the number of refugees living in Germany fell modestly during the first half of 2026, declining by roughly 20,000 to 3.507 million. Government figures attributed the reduction to deportations, departures and naturalizations, while also pointing to a continuing decline in new arrivals from Ukraine. Only 3,919 Ukrainians applied for protection in Germany in June. Including 31,662 departures during the first six months of the year, the Ukrainian refugee population increased by a net 20,857 people. That compares with a net increase of 88,000 in 2025 and 108,000 in 2024. About 1.35 million Ukrainian refugees currently live in Germany.
About 438,000 refugees, representing 12.5 percent of the total, have an uncertain or unresolved status, according to government figures. The remaining refugees have some form of residence or protection status. Clara Bünger, a left-wing opposition politician, has called for a change in government policy, arguing that the sharply lower number of new Ukrainian arrivals weakens the rationale for transferring newly arriving Ukrainians to the asylum-seeker benefits system. The proposed change in legal status remains on hold because the federal and state governments have not resolved their dispute over financing. Bünger has instead called for faster labor-market integration and greater social inclusion of refugees.
Skilled migrants help offset eastern Germany’s demographic labor crunch
Against this backdrop, a new analysis by the Institute of the German Economy, known as IW, highlights the continuing economic importance of migration, particularly for eastern Germany. Without immigration from EU member states and third countries, the number of qualified employees subject to social insurance contributions in the eastern German states would be about 191,000, or 5.3 percent, lower. The findings underscore the extent to which international workers have become part of the region’s labor-market response to demographic pressures.
The number of qualified German citizens employed in eastern Germany has declined since 2019. Although EU citizens continue to offset part of that decline, their contribution is becoming smaller, increasing the importance of workers from countries outside the EU. About 160,000 international skilled workers are now employed in occupations facing labor shortages. Their presence is particularly significant in logistics, health care and hospitality. In the eastern German states, nearly one-fifth of cooks and almost one-quarter of professional drivers and employed physicians are foreign nationals, illustrating the reliance of several essential sectors on international labor.
The importance of that contribution is heightened by the region’s demographic trajectory. Large cohorts are leaving the workforce, while net migration from eastern to western Germany has increased again since 2023. At the same time, the share of foreign skilled workers in eastern Germany remains comparatively low by national standards. Regional developments vary considerably. Despite immigration, the number of qualified employees declined in Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, whereas foreign workers in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg more than compensated for reductions among German workers. Saxony was the only eastern German state where employment increased among both German and foreign skilled workers.
The IW researchers also caution that official employment statistics do not fully capture the contribution of international workers. Once foreign-born employees become naturalized German citizens, they are recorded as German in labor-market statistics, obscuring part of the longer-term impact of immigration. About 1.8 million people were naturalized in Germany between 2015 and 2025, meaning that the role of migration in sustaining the skilled workforce is likely larger than headline figures indicate.
For eastern Germany, the challenge therefore extends beyond attracting additional skilled workers to creating conditions that encourage them to remain. Researchers emphasize that social circumstances, experiences of discrimination and the local political environment increasingly influence both recruitment and retention. These considerations are particularly relevant as Germany competes internationally for skilled labor and prospective workers assess the social and political environment before deciding whether to move.
Reducing administrative barriers could strengthen recruitment efforts, including through a more effective “work-and-stay” agency designed to simplify procedures. But the researchers also point to broader questions of openness and political climate. For international workers, the attractiveness of a region depends not only on employment opportunities but also on the environment in which they are expected to live and build their futures. The upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania could therefore represent important turning points for the region’s appeal to foreign skilled workers.
